Influência Externa na Popularidade Musical: Google Trends como Indicador de Viralidade e Sucesso no Spotify
Resumo
O mercado musical contemporâneo, impulsionado pela ascensão das plataformas de streaming, reflete novas dinâmicas de consumo influenciadas por tendências de diferentes plataformas sociais. Para ampliar a compreensão acerca de tais fenômenos, este trabalho investiga a relação entre o interesse público, medido por buscas no Google, e a popularidade musical no Spotify, através de análises de correlação e causalidade de Granger. Os resultados mostram evidências pontuais para uma relação estatística entre ambos os fenônemos, embora não generalizáveis a todas as canções, reforçando que o desempenho musical é um fenômeno complexo e multifacetado.Referências
Araujo, C. V. S. et al. (2019). Predicting music popularity using music charts. In ICMLA, pages 859–864. IEEE.
Bertone, F. et al. (2021). The stock exchange of influencers: a financial approach for studying fanbase variation trends. In ASONAM, pages 431–435. ACM.
Fuller, W. A. (2009). Introduction to statistical time series. John Wiley & Sons.
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, pages 424–438.
Guerini, M. et al. (2011). Exploring text virality in social networks. In ICWSM. The AAAI Press.
Hauke, J. and Kossowski, T. (2011). Comparison of values of pearson’s and spearman’s correlation coefficients on the same sets of data. Quaestiones Geographicae, 30(2):87–93.
Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3):159–178.
Mondelli, M. L. B. et al. (2018). O que os países escutam: Analisando a rede de gêneros musicais ao redor do mundo. In BraSNAM, Natal.
Moura, F. A. S. et al. (2024). Characterization of the Brazilian musical landscape: a study of regional preferences based on the Spotify charts. In WebMedia, pages 80–88. SBC.
Okanovic, I. and Trouchaud, A. (2023). TikTok: A Modern Spotlight on Emerging Artists: Understanding Why and How TikTok Users Take Part in Viral Behaviors Towards Musical Artists on the Platform. Master’s thesis, Jönköping University.
Oliveira, G. P. et al. (2024). Analyzing the temporal relation between virality and success in the Brazilian music market. In SEMISH, pages 157–168. SBC.
Pereira, F. S. F. et al. (2018). That’s my jam! uma análise temporal sobre a evolução das preferências dos usuários em uma rede social de músicas. In BraSNAM, Natal. SBC.
Schedl, M. et al. (2018). The effects of real-world events on music listening behavior: An intervention time series analysis. In WWW (Companion Volume), pages 75–76. ACM.
Seufitelli, D. B. et al. (2023). Hit song science: a comprehensive survey and research directions. J. New Music Res., 52(1):41–72.
Bertone, F. et al. (2021). The stock exchange of influencers: a financial approach for studying fanbase variation trends. In ASONAM, pages 431–435. ACM.
Fuller, W. A. (2009). Introduction to statistical time series. John Wiley & Sons.
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, pages 424–438.
Guerini, M. et al. (2011). Exploring text virality in social networks. In ICWSM. The AAAI Press.
Hauke, J. and Kossowski, T. (2011). Comparison of values of pearson’s and spearman’s correlation coefficients on the same sets of data. Quaestiones Geographicae, 30(2):87–93.
Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3):159–178.
Mondelli, M. L. B. et al. (2018). O que os países escutam: Analisando a rede de gêneros musicais ao redor do mundo. In BraSNAM, Natal.
Moura, F. A. S. et al. (2024). Characterization of the Brazilian musical landscape: a study of regional preferences based on the Spotify charts. In WebMedia, pages 80–88. SBC.
Okanovic, I. and Trouchaud, A. (2023). TikTok: A Modern Spotlight on Emerging Artists: Understanding Why and How TikTok Users Take Part in Viral Behaviors Towards Musical Artists on the Platform. Master’s thesis, Jönköping University.
Oliveira, G. P. et al. (2024). Analyzing the temporal relation between virality and success in the Brazilian music market. In SEMISH, pages 157–168. SBC.
Pereira, F. S. F. et al. (2018). That’s my jam! uma análise temporal sobre a evolução das preferências dos usuários em uma rede social de músicas. In BraSNAM, Natal. SBC.
Schedl, M. et al. (2018). The effects of real-world events on music listening behavior: An intervention time series analysis. In WWW (Companion Volume), pages 75–76. ACM.
Seufitelli, D. B. et al. (2023). Hit song science: a comprehensive survey and research directions. J. New Music Res., 52(1):41–72.
Publicado
20/07/2025
Como Citar
FONSECA, Gabriela A.; OLIVEIRA, Gabriel P.; SILVA, Ana Paula Couto da.
Influência Externa na Popularidade Musical: Google Trends como Indicador de Viralidade e Sucesso no Spotify. In: BRAZILIAN WORKSHOP ON SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS AND MINING (BRASNAM), 14. , 2025, Maceió/AL.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2025
.
p. 93-105.
ISSN 2595-6094.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/brasnam.2025.8784.
