A Recommender System-Based Approach to Risk Management in Scrum Projects
Resumo
Risk management is essential in software project management. It includes activities such as identifying, measuring, and monitoring risks. The increasingly popular agile methods don’t offer specific activities to manage risk. The lack of risk management or its inadequate application is one of the reasons for the failure of software development projects. Therefore, we developed an approach to risk management in software development projects that use Scrum. The proposed approach provides a set of risk management practices and an iterative life cycle. Along with this approach, we developed a recommendation algorithm to assist decision-making when identifying risks. Thus, we performed an offline evaluation to verify the best configuration for the recommendation algorithm that will accompany our approach. We chose Manhattan similarity based on the experimental results collected, with a precision of 45%, recall of 90%, and F1-score of 58%. So it is possible to observe that the recommender system can perform risk predictions satisfactorily. Therefore, it is promising to assist in decision-making in Scrum-based projects.
Palavras-chave:
Risk Management, Project management, Recommendation System, SCRUM
Referências
Gediminas Adomavicius, Nikos Manouselis, and YoungOk Kwon. 2011. Multicriteria recommender systems. In Recommender systems handbook. Springer, Boston, MA, 769-803.
Gediminas Adomavicius and Alexander Tuzhilin. 2005. Toward the next generation of recommender systems: A survey of the state-of-the-art and possible extensions. IEEE transactions on knowledge and data engineering 17, 6 (2005).
Aalaa Albadarneh, Israa Albadarneh, and Abdallah Qusef. 2015. Risk management in Agile software development: A comparative study. In 2015 IEEE Jordan Conference on Applied Electrical Engineering and Computing Technologies (AEECT). IEEE, IEEE, Jordan, 1-6.
Eman Talal Alharbi and M Rizwan Jameel Qureshi. 2014. Implementation of risk management with SCRUM to achieve CMMI requirements. International Journal of Computer Network and Information Security 6, 11 (2014), 20.
Xavier Amatriain, Alejandro Jaimes, Nuria Oliver, and Josep M Pujol. 2011. Data mining methods for recommender systems. In Recommender systems handbook. Springer, Springer, 39-71.
Vitor Anes, Antônio Abreu, and Ricardo Santos. 2020. A new risk assessment approach for agile projects. In 2020 International Young Engineers Forum (YEFECE). IEEE, IEEE, USA, 67-72.
The Stationery Office (editor) AXELOS. 2018. Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2 2017 Edition (2017 ed.). TSO, Online.
Syrine Chaouch, Asma Mejri, and Sonia Ayachi Ghannouchi. 2019. A framework for risk management in Scrum development process. Procedia Computer Science 164 (2019), 187-192.
Heng-Tze Cheng, Levent Koc, Jeremiah Harmsen, Tal Shaked, Tushar Chandra, Hrishi Aradhye, Glen Anderson, Greg Corrado, Wei Chai, Mustafa Ispir, et al. 2016. Wide & deep learning for recommender systems. In Proceedings of the 1st workshop on deep learning for recommender systems. online, USA, 7-10.
Seung-Seok Choi, Sung-Hyuk Cha, and Charles C Tappert. 2010. A survey of binary similarity and distance measures. JSCI 8, 1 (2010), 43-48.
Mary Beth Chrissis, Mike Konrad, and Sandra Shrum. 2011. CMMI for development: guidelines for process integration and product improvement. Pearson Education.
Emanuel Dantas, Ademar Sousa Neto, Mirko Perkusich, Hyggo Almeida, and Angelo Perkusich. 2021. Using Bayesian Networks to Support Managing Technological Risk on Software Projects. In Anais do I Workshop Brasileiro de Engenharia de Software Inteligente. SBC, 1-6.
Christian Desrosiers and George Karypis. 2011. A comprehensive survey of neighborhood-based recommendation methods. Recommender systems handbook 1, 2 (2011), 107-144.
Alexsandro Filippetto, Robson Lima, and Jorge Barbosa. 2020. Átropos: towards a risk prediction model for software project management. International Journal of Agile Systems and Management 13, 3 (2020), 296-314.
Benjamin Gold and Clive Vassell. 2015. Using risk management to balance agile methods: A study of the Scrum process. In 2015 2nd International Conference on Knowledge-Based Engineering and Innovation (KBEI). IEEE, online, USA, 49-54.
Asela Gunawardana and Guy Shani. 2009. A survey of accuracy evaluation metrics of recommendation tasks. Journal of Machine Learning Research 10, 12 (2009), 10 pages.
Muhammad Hammad and Irum Inayat. 2018. Integrating risk management in scrum framework. In 2018 International Conference on Frontiers of Information Technology (FIT). IEEE, USA, online, 158-163.
Kim Heldman. 2005. Project manager's spotlight on risk management. John Wiley & Sons, USA.
Project Management Institute. 2021. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) - and the Standard for Project Management (7 ed.). Project Management Institute, USA.
ISO. 2018. Norma Internacional ISO 31000:2018. ISO, USA.
Magne Jørgensen. 2018. Do agile methods work for large software projects?. In International Conference on Agile Software Development. Springer, 179-190.
Giuseppe Jurman, Samantha Riccadonna, Roberto Visintainer, and Cesare Furlanello. 2009. Canberra distance on ranked lists. In Proceedings of advances in ranking NIPS 09 workshop. Citeseer, USA, Citeseer, 22-27.
Sana Khan. 2009. An approach to facilitate software risk identification. In 2009 2nd International Conference on Computer, Control and Communication. IEEE, IEEE, USA, 1-5.
Luanna Lopes Lobato, Thiago Jabur Bittar, Paulo Anselmo da Mota Silveira Neto, Ivan Do Carmo Machado, Eduardo Santana De Almeida, and SILVIO ROMERO DE LEMOS MEIRA. 2013. Risk management in software product line engineering: a mapping study. International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering 23, 04 (2013), 523-558.
Alan Moran. 2014. Agile risk management. In Agile Risk Management. Springer, USA, 33-60.
Stefanut Morcov, Liliane Pintelon, and Rob J Kusters. 2020. Definitions, characteristics and measures of IT project complexity-a systematic literature review. International Journal of Information Systems and Project Management 8, 2 (2020).
Cinzia Muriana and Giovanni Vizzini. 2017. Project risk management: A deterministic quantitative technique for assessment and mitigation. IJPM 35, 3 (2017).
Per Rådberg Nagbøl, Oliver Müller, and Oliver Krancher. 2021. Designing a risk assessment tool for artificial intelligence systems. In International Conference on Design Science Research in Information Systems and Technology. Springer, Springer, USA, 328-339.
Mirko Perkusich, Lenardo Chaves e Silva, Alexandre Costa, Felipe Ramos, Renata Saraiva, Arthur Freire, Ednaldo Dilorenzo, Emanuel Dantas, Danilo Santos, Kyller Gorgônio, Hyggo Almeida, and Angelo Perkusich. 2020. Intelligent software engineering in the context of agile software development: A systematic literature review. Information and Software Technology 119 (2020), 106241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2019.106241
Muhammad Akil Rafeek, Adila Firdaus Arbain, and Endah Sudarmilah. 2019. Risk mitigation techniques in agile development processes. Int. J. Supply Chain Manag 8, 2 (2019), 1123-1129.
F Ricii, L Rokach, B Shapira, and PB Kantor. 2011. Recommender System Handbook.
Kenneth A. Ross. 2009. Cache-Conscious Query Processing. Springer US, Boston, MA, 301-304. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-39940-9_658
Kenneth S Rubin. 2012. Essential Scrum: A practical guide to the most popular Agile process. Addison-Wesley, USA.
Robert S Russell and Bernard W Taylor-Iii. 2008. Operations management along the supply chain (1a ed.). John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0470233795.
Ashish B Sasankar and Vinay Chavan. 2011. SWOT analysis of software development process models. IJCSI 8, 5 (2011), 390.
Ken Schwaber and Jeff Sutherland. 2020. The Scrum Guide. URL: [link] 2, 2 (2020), 20 pages.
Pedro Serrador and Jeffrey K. Pinto. 2015. Does Agile work? - A quantitative analysis of agile project success. International Journal of Project Management 33, 5 (2015), 1040-1051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.01.006
Xiaoyuan Su and Taghi M Khoshgoftaar. 2006. Collaborative filtering for multiclass data using belief nets algorithms. In 2006 18th IEEE international conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI'06). IEEE, IEEE, USA, 497-504.
Carlos Tam, Eduardo Jôia da Costa Moura, Tiago Oliveira, and João Varajão. 2020. The factors influencing the success of on-going agile software development projects. International Journal of Project Management 38, 3 (2020), 165-176.
Maureen Tanner and Angela Mackinnon. 2015. Sources of interruptions experienced during a scrum sprint. Electronic Journal of Information Systems Evaluation 18, 1 (2015), pp3-18.
Breno Gontijo Tavares, Carlos Eduardo Sanches da Silva, and Adler Diniz de Souza. 2019. Risk management analysis in Scrum software projects. International Transactions in Operational Research 26, 5 (2019), 1884-1905.
Juliane Teller, Alexander Kock, and Hans Georg Gemünden. 2014. Risk management in project portfolios is more than managing project risks: A contingency perspective on risk management. Project Management Journal 45, 4 (2014), 67-80.
Gediminas Adomavicius and Alexander Tuzhilin. 2005. Toward the next generation of recommender systems: A survey of the state-of-the-art and possible extensions. IEEE transactions on knowledge and data engineering 17, 6 (2005).
Aalaa Albadarneh, Israa Albadarneh, and Abdallah Qusef. 2015. Risk management in Agile software development: A comparative study. In 2015 IEEE Jordan Conference on Applied Electrical Engineering and Computing Technologies (AEECT). IEEE, IEEE, Jordan, 1-6.
Eman Talal Alharbi and M Rizwan Jameel Qureshi. 2014. Implementation of risk management with SCRUM to achieve CMMI requirements. International Journal of Computer Network and Information Security 6, 11 (2014), 20.
Xavier Amatriain, Alejandro Jaimes, Nuria Oliver, and Josep M Pujol. 2011. Data mining methods for recommender systems. In Recommender systems handbook. Springer, Springer, 39-71.
Vitor Anes, Antônio Abreu, and Ricardo Santos. 2020. A new risk assessment approach for agile projects. In 2020 International Young Engineers Forum (YEFECE). IEEE, IEEE, USA, 67-72.
The Stationery Office (editor) AXELOS. 2018. Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2 2017 Edition (2017 ed.). TSO, Online.
Syrine Chaouch, Asma Mejri, and Sonia Ayachi Ghannouchi. 2019. A framework for risk management in Scrum development process. Procedia Computer Science 164 (2019), 187-192.
Heng-Tze Cheng, Levent Koc, Jeremiah Harmsen, Tal Shaked, Tushar Chandra, Hrishi Aradhye, Glen Anderson, Greg Corrado, Wei Chai, Mustafa Ispir, et al. 2016. Wide & deep learning for recommender systems. In Proceedings of the 1st workshop on deep learning for recommender systems. online, USA, 7-10.
Seung-Seok Choi, Sung-Hyuk Cha, and Charles C Tappert. 2010. A survey of binary similarity and distance measures. JSCI 8, 1 (2010), 43-48.
Mary Beth Chrissis, Mike Konrad, and Sandra Shrum. 2011. CMMI for development: guidelines for process integration and product improvement. Pearson Education.
Emanuel Dantas, Ademar Sousa Neto, Mirko Perkusich, Hyggo Almeida, and Angelo Perkusich. 2021. Using Bayesian Networks to Support Managing Technological Risk on Software Projects. In Anais do I Workshop Brasileiro de Engenharia de Software Inteligente. SBC, 1-6.
Christian Desrosiers and George Karypis. 2011. A comprehensive survey of neighborhood-based recommendation methods. Recommender systems handbook 1, 2 (2011), 107-144.
Alexsandro Filippetto, Robson Lima, and Jorge Barbosa. 2020. Átropos: towards a risk prediction model for software project management. International Journal of Agile Systems and Management 13, 3 (2020), 296-314.
Benjamin Gold and Clive Vassell. 2015. Using risk management to balance agile methods: A study of the Scrum process. In 2015 2nd International Conference on Knowledge-Based Engineering and Innovation (KBEI). IEEE, online, USA, 49-54.
Asela Gunawardana and Guy Shani. 2009. A survey of accuracy evaluation metrics of recommendation tasks. Journal of Machine Learning Research 10, 12 (2009), 10 pages.
Muhammad Hammad and Irum Inayat. 2018. Integrating risk management in scrum framework. In 2018 International Conference on Frontiers of Information Technology (FIT). IEEE, USA, online, 158-163.
Kim Heldman. 2005. Project manager's spotlight on risk management. John Wiley & Sons, USA.
Project Management Institute. 2021. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) - and the Standard for Project Management (7 ed.). Project Management Institute, USA.
ISO. 2018. Norma Internacional ISO 31000:2018. ISO, USA.
Magne Jørgensen. 2018. Do agile methods work for large software projects?. In International Conference on Agile Software Development. Springer, 179-190.
Giuseppe Jurman, Samantha Riccadonna, Roberto Visintainer, and Cesare Furlanello. 2009. Canberra distance on ranked lists. In Proceedings of advances in ranking NIPS 09 workshop. Citeseer, USA, Citeseer, 22-27.
Sana Khan. 2009. An approach to facilitate software risk identification. In 2009 2nd International Conference on Computer, Control and Communication. IEEE, IEEE, USA, 1-5.
Luanna Lopes Lobato, Thiago Jabur Bittar, Paulo Anselmo da Mota Silveira Neto, Ivan Do Carmo Machado, Eduardo Santana De Almeida, and SILVIO ROMERO DE LEMOS MEIRA. 2013. Risk management in software product line engineering: a mapping study. International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering 23, 04 (2013), 523-558.
Alan Moran. 2014. Agile risk management. In Agile Risk Management. Springer, USA, 33-60.
Stefanut Morcov, Liliane Pintelon, and Rob J Kusters. 2020. Definitions, characteristics and measures of IT project complexity-a systematic literature review. International Journal of Information Systems and Project Management 8, 2 (2020).
Cinzia Muriana and Giovanni Vizzini. 2017. Project risk management: A deterministic quantitative technique for assessment and mitigation. IJPM 35, 3 (2017).
Per Rådberg Nagbøl, Oliver Müller, and Oliver Krancher. 2021. Designing a risk assessment tool for artificial intelligence systems. In International Conference on Design Science Research in Information Systems and Technology. Springer, Springer, USA, 328-339.
Mirko Perkusich, Lenardo Chaves e Silva, Alexandre Costa, Felipe Ramos, Renata Saraiva, Arthur Freire, Ednaldo Dilorenzo, Emanuel Dantas, Danilo Santos, Kyller Gorgônio, Hyggo Almeida, and Angelo Perkusich. 2020. Intelligent software engineering in the context of agile software development: A systematic literature review. Information and Software Technology 119 (2020), 106241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2019.106241
Muhammad Akil Rafeek, Adila Firdaus Arbain, and Endah Sudarmilah. 2019. Risk mitigation techniques in agile development processes. Int. J. Supply Chain Manag 8, 2 (2019), 1123-1129.
F Ricii, L Rokach, B Shapira, and PB Kantor. 2011. Recommender System Handbook.
Kenneth A. Ross. 2009. Cache-Conscious Query Processing. Springer US, Boston, MA, 301-304. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-39940-9_658
Kenneth S Rubin. 2012. Essential Scrum: A practical guide to the most popular Agile process. Addison-Wesley, USA.
Robert S Russell and Bernard W Taylor-Iii. 2008. Operations management along the supply chain (1a ed.). John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0470233795.
Ashish B Sasankar and Vinay Chavan. 2011. SWOT analysis of software development process models. IJCSI 8, 5 (2011), 390.
Ken Schwaber and Jeff Sutherland. 2020. The Scrum Guide. URL: [link] 2, 2 (2020), 20 pages.
Pedro Serrador and Jeffrey K. Pinto. 2015. Does Agile work? - A quantitative analysis of agile project success. International Journal of Project Management 33, 5 (2015), 1040-1051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.01.006
Xiaoyuan Su and Taghi M Khoshgoftaar. 2006. Collaborative filtering for multiclass data using belief nets algorithms. In 2006 18th IEEE international conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI'06). IEEE, IEEE, USA, 497-504.
Carlos Tam, Eduardo Jôia da Costa Moura, Tiago Oliveira, and João Varajão. 2020. The factors influencing the success of on-going agile software development projects. International Journal of Project Management 38, 3 (2020), 165-176.
Maureen Tanner and Angela Mackinnon. 2015. Sources of interruptions experienced during a scrum sprint. Electronic Journal of Information Systems Evaluation 18, 1 (2015), pp3-18.
Breno Gontijo Tavares, Carlos Eduardo Sanches da Silva, and Adler Diniz de Souza. 2019. Risk management analysis in Scrum software projects. International Transactions in Operational Research 26, 5 (2019), 1884-1905.
Juliane Teller, Alexander Kock, and Hans Georg Gemünden. 2014. Risk management in project portfolios is more than managing project risks: A contingency perspective on risk management. Project Management Journal 45, 4 (2014), 67-80.
Publicado
04/10/2022
Como Citar
SOUSA NETO, Ademar; PERKUSICH, Mirko; DANTAS, Emanuel; RAMOS, Felipe; COSTA, Alexandre; ALMEIDA, Hyggo; PERKUSICH, Angelo.
A Recommender System-Based Approach to Risk Management in Scrum Projects. In: WORKSHOP BRASILEIRO DE ENGENHARIA DE SOFTWARE INTELIGENTE (ISE), 2. , 2022, Evento Online.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2022
.
p. 1-6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/ise.2022.226917.
