Will I Remain Popular? A Study Case on Spotify

  • Carlos Araujo Universidade Federal do Amazonas
  • Marco Cristo UFAM
  • Rafael Giusti Universidade Federal do Amazonas


Online streaming platforms are now the most important form of music consumption. In this paper, we present a model for predicting if a popular song on Spotify will remain popular after a certain amount of time. Spotify is the second biggest global streaming service. If a song is popular on this plataform it will ensure a good financial return for the artist and his label. We approach the problem as a classification task and employ classificators built on past information from the plataform's Top 50 Global ranking. The Support Vector Machine with linear kernel classificator reached the best results. We also verify if acoustic information can provide useful features for this problem.We made a series of classication rounds, where the results of one round were used as input of posterior rounds. Our results show that rankings previous data alone is sufficient to predict if a song will remain at the Top 50 Global two months in advance, achieving accuracy, negative predictive value, recall, specificity and F1 Score higher than 70\% for this task.


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ARAUJO, Carlos; CRISTO, Marco; GIUSTI, Rafael. Will I Remain Popular? A Study Case on Spotify. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE INTELIGÊNCIA ARTIFICIAL E COMPUTACIONAL (ENIAC), 16. , 2019, Salvador. Anais [...]. Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação, 2019 . p. 599-610. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/eniac.2019.9318.