On the dynamics of music virality and its relation with mainstream success

• Gabriel P. Oliveira Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
• Ana Paula Couto da Silva Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
• Mirella M. Moro Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbbd_estendido.2026.249422

Resumo

Music going viral is not new, but the Web and social platforms have amplified its global reach. While related, virality and commercial success remain distinct. This work analyzes music virality and its relation to mainstream success from a data science perspective through three steps: characterization, causality analysis, and temporal modeling. Results show that artist-related and temporal features best distinguish both phenomena, which can sometimes predict each other. Furthermore, epidemiological models capture viral dynamics more accurately than long-term success. Overall, this work reinforces the differences and symbiotic links between virality and success, contributing to computing, musicology, and the music industry.

Palavras-chave: music, temporal features, pidemiological models, music virality

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