Decisions and Delphi: The Dynamics of Group Estimation
Resumo
Cost estimation is often performed by a group. We examined what decision theorists have to say about group decision-making, and observed seven groups as they discussed their estimates for a small project. We found that personalities had more to do with confidence and consensus on an estimative than did expertise or years of experience.
Palavras-chave:
estimation, decision theory, bias
Referências
Solomon Asch, "Studies of independence and submission to group pressure," Psychological Monographs, 70, 1956.
Barry W. Boehm, Sofiware Engineering Economics, Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ 1981
J. S. Busby and S. C. Barton, "Predicting the cost of engineering: does intuition help or binder?," Engineering Management Journal, 1996, p. 177-182.
Tom DeMarco, Controlling Software Projects: Management, Measuremens and Estimation. Yourdon Press, New York, 1982.
G. A. Forgionne, Quantitative Decision Making, Wadsworth, Belmont, California, 1986.
H.C. Foushee, J. K. Lauber, M. M, Baetge and D. B. Acomb, "Crew performance as a function of exposure to high-density short-haul duty cycles," NASA Technical Memorandum 99322, Moffett Field, CA, NASA Ames Research Center, 1986.
John C. Hershey, Howard C. Kunreuther and Paul Schoemaker, "Sources of bias in assessment procedures for utility functions," Management Science, 28, 1982, p. 936-954.
Gary Klein, Sources of Power, MIT Press, 1998.
Paul Kicindorfer, Howard Kunreuther and Paul Schoemaker, Decision sciences: an integrative perspective, Cambridge University Press, UK, 1993.
James L. McKenney and Peter G. W. Keen, "How managers' minds work," Harvard Business Review, 52(2), May/June 1974.
Sauer, Chris, et al. "The effectiveness of software development technical reviews: a behaviorally molivated program of research', IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering 26(1), pp1-14, 2000.
Claude Steele, "Thin ice: stereotype threat and black college students," Atlantic Monthly, August 1999.
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice" Science, 211, 1981, p. 453-458.
Barry W. Boehm, Sofiware Engineering Economics, Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ 1981
J. S. Busby and S. C. Barton, "Predicting the cost of engineering: does intuition help or binder?," Engineering Management Journal, 1996, p. 177-182.
Tom DeMarco, Controlling Software Projects: Management, Measuremens and Estimation. Yourdon Press, New York, 1982.
G. A. Forgionne, Quantitative Decision Making, Wadsworth, Belmont, California, 1986.
H.C. Foushee, J. K. Lauber, M. M, Baetge and D. B. Acomb, "Crew performance as a function of exposure to high-density short-haul duty cycles," NASA Technical Memorandum 99322, Moffett Field, CA, NASA Ames Research Center, 1986.
John C. Hershey, Howard C. Kunreuther and Paul Schoemaker, "Sources of bias in assessment procedures for utility functions," Management Science, 28, 1982, p. 936-954.
Gary Klein, Sources of Power, MIT Press, 1998.
Paul Kicindorfer, Howard Kunreuther and Paul Schoemaker, Decision sciences: an integrative perspective, Cambridge University Press, UK, 1993.
James L. McKenney and Peter G. W. Keen, "How managers' minds work," Harvard Business Review, 52(2), May/June 1974.
Sauer, Chris, et al. "The effectiveness of software development technical reviews: a behaviorally molivated program of research', IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering 26(1), pp1-14, 2000.
Claude Steele, "Thin ice: stereotype threat and black college students," Atlantic Monthly, August 1999.
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice" Science, 211, 1981, p. 453-458.
Publicado
04/10/2000
Como Citar
PFLEEGER, Shari Lawrence; SHEPPERD, Martin; TESORIERO, Roseanne.
Decisions and Delphi: The Dynamics of Group Estimation. In: SIMPÓSIO BRASILEIRO DE ENGENHARIA DE SOFTWARE (SBES), 14. , 2000, João Pessoa/PB.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2000
.
p. 3-15.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbes.2000.25916.
