Stochastic Modeling of Satellite Aging and its Impact on PDOPReliability in Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Networks
Resumo
Satellite-assisted LoRaWAN networks are evolving toward collaborative technologies (3C: communication, coordination, and cooperation) that enable coordinated and adaptive IoT connectivity. However, satellite aging, geometric degradation, and propagation losses significantly impact reliability, energy efficiency, and service continuity. This article summarizes a doctoral research contribution that integrates stochastic Petri Nets (SPN), Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC), Erlang-distributed aging processes, and computational geometry to develop a unified analytical framework. The proposed model incorporates collaborative behavior among distributed nodes, capturing the causal chain linking satellite availability, geometric dilution of precision (PDOP), signal quality, packet delivery ratio, energy consumption, and device lifetime. Experimental validation demonstrates that collaborative adaptation improves resilience, availability, and Quality of Service (QoS) in aging-aware scenarios.
Palavras-chave:
collaborative technologies, 3C, CTMC, LoRa, Satellite, QoS
Referências
Al-Hourani, A. (2024). Line-of-sight probability and holding distance in non-terrestrial networks. IEEE Communications Letters, 28(3):622–626.
Alandihallaj, M., Ramezani, M., and Hein, A. M. (2024). Mbse-enhanced lstm framework for satellite system reliability and failure prediction.
Baouya, A., Hamid, B., Mohamed, O. A., and Bensalem, S. (2024). Model-Based Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Analysis for Satellite Systems with Collaborative Maneuvers via Stochastic Games . In 2024 50th Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications (SEAA), pages 27–34, Los Alamitos, CA, USA. IEEE Computer Society.
chang Mo, Y., Xing, L., Cui, L., and Si, S. (2017). Mdd-based performability analysis of multi-state linear consecutive-k-out-of-n: F systems. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 166:124–131.
chang Mo, Y., Xing, L., Guo, W., Cai, S., Zhang, Z., and Jiang, J. (2020). Reliability analysis of iot networks with community structures. IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering, 7:304–315.
Chen, Z., Zhang, H., Wang, X., Yang, J., and Dui, H. (2024). Reliability analysis and redundancy design of satellite communication system based on a novel bayesian environmental importance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 243:109813.
Erturk, M., Aydin, M., Buyukakkaglar, M., and Evirgen, H. (2019). A survey on lorawan architecture, protocol and technologies. Future Internet, 11(10):216–250.
Fan, L., Tu, R., Zheng, Z., Zhang, R., Lu, X., Liu, J., Huang, X., and Hong, J. (2020). Evaluation of signal-in-space continuity and availability for beidou satellite considering failures. The Journal of Navigation, 73(2):312–323.
Ferre, R. M. and Lohan, E. S. (2021). Comparison of meo, leo, and terrestrial iot configurations in terms of gdop and achievable positioning accuracies. IEEE Journal of Radio Frequency Identification, 5(3):287–299.
GNSS, C. (2023). Reports international committee on global navigation satellite systems, jan. 1. [link], Accessed Mar. 23, 2023.
Lee, H., Seo, J., and Kassas, Z. Z. M. (2022). Urban road safety prediction: A satellite navigation perspective. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine, 14(6):94–106.
Li, H., Zheng, H., Zhao, H., and Zheng, Z. (2018). Research on the availability analysis method of navigation satellite based on petri nets. In Sun, J., Yang, C., and Guo, S., editors, China Satellite Navigation Conference (CSNC) 2018 Proceedings, pages 127–136, Singapore. Springer Singapore.
Li, Y., Xu, Y., Zhang, Q., and Yang, Z. (2022). Age-driven spatially temporally correlative updating in the satellite-integrated internet of things via markov decision process. IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 9(15):13612–13625.
NASA (2014). Marshall solar physics. Technical Report Apr. [link], Accessed Date Feb 1 2024.
NASA, N. (2022). Nasa’s exploration in-space services. Technical Report May. [link], Accessed Date Feb 14 2024.
Natvig, B. (2011). Multistate systems reliability theory with applications.
NAVSTAR, U. D. o. D. (2020a). 3.6.1 sis continuity - unscheduled failure interruptions. [link], Accessed Date Feb 4 2024.
NAVSTAR, U. e. D. o. D. (2020b). Sis per-satellite coverage, global positioning system standard positioning service performance standard. Technical Report April. [link], Accessed Date Feb 2 2024.
Oszczypała, M., Konwerski, J., Ziółkowski, J., and Małachowski, J. (2024). Reliability analysis and redundancy optimization of k-out-of-n systems with random variable k using continuous time markov chain and monte carlo simulation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 242:109780.
Pan, G., Ye, J., An, J., and Alouini, M.-S. (2023). Latency versus reliability in leo mega-constellations: Terrestrial, aerial, or space relay? IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing, 22(9):5330–5345.
Ryan, G. (2023). Gu.s. mission unvie, “u.s. statement - agenda item 9 - global navigation satellite systems-60th session of the stsc of copuos,” u.s. mission to international organizations in vienna, feb. 15, 2023.
Shakhov, V., Shakhov, N., and Koo, I. (2025). Novel continuous-time markov chain-based model for performance analysis of hybrid free space optics and radio frequency communications. Applied Sciences, 15(4).
Talgat, A., Kishk, M. A., and Alouini, M.-S. (2024). Stochastic geometry-based uplink performance analysis of iot over leo satellite communication. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 60(4):4198–4213.
Trivedi, K. S. and Bobbio, A. (2017). Reliability and availability engineering: modeling, analysis, and applications. Cambridge University Press.
U. S. FAA, S. (2022). Gps performance availability. Technical Report March. [link], Accessed Date Feb 1 2024.
Wang, R., Kishk, M. A., and Alouini, M.-S. (2022). Evaluating the accuracy of stochastic geometry based models for leo satellite networks analysis. IEEE Communications Letters, 26(10):2440–2444.
Zaitseva, E. and Vitaly, L. (2017). Reliability analysis of multi-state system with application of multiple-valued logic. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 34.
Zaitseva, E. N., Levashenko, V. G., and Rabcan, J. (2022). A new method for analysis of multi-state systems based on multi-valued decision diagram under epistemic uncertainty. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
Zeng, Y., Huang, T., Li, Y.-F., and Huang, H.-Z. (2023). Reliability modeling for power converter in satellite considering periodic phased mission. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 232:109039.
Alandihallaj, M., Ramezani, M., and Hein, A. M. (2024). Mbse-enhanced lstm framework for satellite system reliability and failure prediction.
Baouya, A., Hamid, B., Mohamed, O. A., and Bensalem, S. (2024). Model-Based Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Analysis for Satellite Systems with Collaborative Maneuvers via Stochastic Games . In 2024 50th Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications (SEAA), pages 27–34, Los Alamitos, CA, USA. IEEE Computer Society.
chang Mo, Y., Xing, L., Cui, L., and Si, S. (2017). Mdd-based performability analysis of multi-state linear consecutive-k-out-of-n: F systems. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 166:124–131.
chang Mo, Y., Xing, L., Guo, W., Cai, S., Zhang, Z., and Jiang, J. (2020). Reliability analysis of iot networks with community structures. IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering, 7:304–315.
Chen, Z., Zhang, H., Wang, X., Yang, J., and Dui, H. (2024). Reliability analysis and redundancy design of satellite communication system based on a novel bayesian environmental importance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 243:109813.
Erturk, M., Aydin, M., Buyukakkaglar, M., and Evirgen, H. (2019). A survey on lorawan architecture, protocol and technologies. Future Internet, 11(10):216–250.
Fan, L., Tu, R., Zheng, Z., Zhang, R., Lu, X., Liu, J., Huang, X., and Hong, J. (2020). Evaluation of signal-in-space continuity and availability for beidou satellite considering failures. The Journal of Navigation, 73(2):312–323.
Ferre, R. M. and Lohan, E. S. (2021). Comparison of meo, leo, and terrestrial iot configurations in terms of gdop and achievable positioning accuracies. IEEE Journal of Radio Frequency Identification, 5(3):287–299.
GNSS, C. (2023). Reports international committee on global navigation satellite systems, jan. 1. [link], Accessed Mar. 23, 2023.
Lee, H., Seo, J., and Kassas, Z. Z. M. (2022). Urban road safety prediction: A satellite navigation perspective. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine, 14(6):94–106.
Li, H., Zheng, H., Zhao, H., and Zheng, Z. (2018). Research on the availability analysis method of navigation satellite based on petri nets. In Sun, J., Yang, C., and Guo, S., editors, China Satellite Navigation Conference (CSNC) 2018 Proceedings, pages 127–136, Singapore. Springer Singapore.
Li, Y., Xu, Y., Zhang, Q., and Yang, Z. (2022). Age-driven spatially temporally correlative updating in the satellite-integrated internet of things via markov decision process. IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 9(15):13612–13625.
NASA (2014). Marshall solar physics. Technical Report Apr. [link], Accessed Date Feb 1 2024.
NASA, N. (2022). Nasa’s exploration in-space services. Technical Report May. [link], Accessed Date Feb 14 2024.
Natvig, B. (2011). Multistate systems reliability theory with applications.
NAVSTAR, U. D. o. D. (2020a). 3.6.1 sis continuity - unscheduled failure interruptions. [link], Accessed Date Feb 4 2024.
NAVSTAR, U. e. D. o. D. (2020b). Sis per-satellite coverage, global positioning system standard positioning service performance standard. Technical Report April. [link], Accessed Date Feb 2 2024.
Oszczypała, M., Konwerski, J., Ziółkowski, J., and Małachowski, J. (2024). Reliability analysis and redundancy optimization of k-out-of-n systems with random variable k using continuous time markov chain and monte carlo simulation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 242:109780.
Pan, G., Ye, J., An, J., and Alouini, M.-S. (2023). Latency versus reliability in leo mega-constellations: Terrestrial, aerial, or space relay? IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing, 22(9):5330–5345.
Ryan, G. (2023). Gu.s. mission unvie, “u.s. statement - agenda item 9 - global navigation satellite systems-60th session of the stsc of copuos,” u.s. mission to international organizations in vienna, feb. 15, 2023.
Shakhov, V., Shakhov, N., and Koo, I. (2025). Novel continuous-time markov chain-based model for performance analysis of hybrid free space optics and radio frequency communications. Applied Sciences, 15(4).
Talgat, A., Kishk, M. A., and Alouini, M.-S. (2024). Stochastic geometry-based uplink performance analysis of iot over leo satellite communication. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 60(4):4198–4213.
Trivedi, K. S. and Bobbio, A. (2017). Reliability and availability engineering: modeling, analysis, and applications. Cambridge University Press.
U. S. FAA, S. (2022). Gps performance availability. Technical Report March. [link], Accessed Date Feb 1 2024.
Wang, R., Kishk, M. A., and Alouini, M.-S. (2022). Evaluating the accuracy of stochastic geometry based models for leo satellite networks analysis. IEEE Communications Letters, 26(10):2440–2444.
Zaitseva, E. and Vitaly, L. (2017). Reliability analysis of multi-state system with application of multiple-valued logic. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 34.
Zaitseva, E. N., Levashenko, V. G., and Rabcan, J. (2022). A new method for analysis of multi-state systems based on multi-valued decision diagram under epistemic uncertainty. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
Zeng, Y., Huang, T., Li, Y.-F., and Huang, H.-Z. (2023). Reliability modeling for power converter in satellite considering periodic phased mission. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 232:109039.
Publicado
08/06/2026
Como Citar
BERMUDEZ, Esau; MACIEL, Paulo.
Stochastic Modeling of Satellite Aging and its Impact on PDOPReliability in Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Networks. In: CONCURSO DE TESES, DISSERTAÇÕES E TCCS EM SISTEMAS COLABORATIVOS - SIMPÓSIO BRASILEIRO DE SISTEMAS COLABORATIVOS (SBSC), 21. , 2026, Porto Alegre/RS.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2026
.
p. 195-206.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbsc_estendido.2026.21009.
