Classification of Fire Risk Scenarios in the State of Pará Using Multicriteria Analysis
Resumo
Wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon are shaped by climatic and anthropogenic factors and require decision-support methods. This study proposes a multicriteria model to classify wildfire risk scenarios across municipalities in Pará. Environmental indicators from remote sensing and public databases are integrated with weights derived from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ELECTRE Tri-B classification. Municipalities are assigned to low, moderate, high, and critical risk categories. The results support the identification of priority areas for environmental monitoring and territorial management.Referências
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Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R., and Gomez-Dans, J. L. (2013). Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(16):6442–6447.
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., and Artaxo, P. (2009). Fire in the earth system. Science, 324(5926):481–484.
Bozca, M. and Akıncı, H. (2025). A multi-criteria forest fire danger assessment system on gis using literature-based model and analytical hierarchy process model. Sustainability, 17(2):784.
Colares, H. T. e. a. (2023). Sistema de seleção multicritério de tecnologia em fazenda inteligente. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
Copernicus CDS (2024). Era5-land: Reanalysis data. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Das, S., Sahu, S., and Das, K. (2023). Wildfire risk zone mapping in contrasting climatic conditions: An approach employing ahp and fuzzy-ahp models. Fire, 6(3):121.
Davis Jr., C. A. (2009). Infraestruturas de dados espaciais na integração entre sistemas ambientais. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
FAPESPA (2024). Fapespa launches dashboard of the gdp of the 144 municipalities. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Fearnside, P. M. (2005). Deforestation in brazilian amazonia: History, rates, and consequences. Conservation Biology, 19(3):680–688.
Figueira, J., Greco, S., and Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys. Springer.
IBGE (2023). Continuous cartographic base of brazil and municipal data. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
INPE (2025). Programa queimadas - banco de dados de queimadas (bdqueimadas). Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Libonati, R. e. a. (2022). Multicriteria severity indicator using remote sensing for forest firefighting dispatch in the brazilian amazon. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 19:1–5.
Malczewski, J. (2006). Gis-based multicriteria decision analysis: A survey of the literature. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 20(7):703–726.
MapBiomas (2023). Mapbiomas project – land use and land cover collection in brazil. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
NASA (2024). Fire information for resource management system (firms). Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Nepstad, D. C., Stickler, C. M., Soares-Filho, B., and Merry, F. (2008). Interactions among amazon land use, forests and climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 363(1498):1737–1746.
Nepstad, D. e. a. (2014). Slowing amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science, 344(6188):1118–1123.
Paiva, R. e. a. (2020). Análise de metacaracterísticas para classificação de uso e cobertura do solo. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
Roy, B. (1996). Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill.
Silva, J. M., Santos, L. R., and Ferreira, A. C. (2025). A spatial multi-criteria framework to define priorities in wildfire management programs. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 8:104521.
Van Wagner, C. E. (1987). Development and structure of the canadian forest fire weather index system. Technical Report Forestry Technical Report 35, Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Canada.
Winemiller, K. O. e. a. (2016). Balancing hydropower and biodiversity in the amazon, congo, and mekong. Science, 351(6269):128–129.
Xu, H., Chen, J., He, G., Lin, Z., Bai, Y., Ren, M., Zhang, H., Yin, H., and Liu, F. (2024). Immediate assessment of forest fire using a novel vegetation index and machine learning based on multi-platform, high temporal resolution remote sensing images. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 134:104210.
Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R., and Gomez-Dans, J. L. (2013). Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(16):6442–6447.
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., and Artaxo, P. (2009). Fire in the earth system. Science, 324(5926):481–484.
Bozca, M. and Akıncı, H. (2025). A multi-criteria forest fire danger assessment system on gis using literature-based model and analytical hierarchy process model. Sustainability, 17(2):784.
Colares, H. T. e. a. (2023). Sistema de seleção multicritério de tecnologia em fazenda inteligente. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
Copernicus CDS (2024). Era5-land: Reanalysis data. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Das, S., Sahu, S., and Das, K. (2023). Wildfire risk zone mapping in contrasting climatic conditions: An approach employing ahp and fuzzy-ahp models. Fire, 6(3):121.
Davis Jr., C. A. (2009). Infraestruturas de dados espaciais na integração entre sistemas ambientais. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
FAPESPA (2024). Fapespa launches dashboard of the gdp of the 144 municipalities. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Fearnside, P. M. (2005). Deforestation in brazilian amazonia: History, rates, and consequences. Conservation Biology, 19(3):680–688.
Figueira, J., Greco, S., and Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys. Springer.
IBGE (2023). Continuous cartographic base of brazil and municipal data. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
INPE (2025). Programa queimadas - banco de dados de queimadas (bdqueimadas). Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Libonati, R. e. a. (2022). Multicriteria severity indicator using remote sensing for forest firefighting dispatch in the brazilian amazon. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 19:1–5.
Malczewski, J. (2006). Gis-based multicriteria decision analysis: A survey of the literature. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 20(7):703–726.
MapBiomas (2023). Mapbiomas project – land use and land cover collection in brazil. Accessed: Mar. 2026.
NASA (2024). Fire information for resource management system (firms). Accessed: Mar. 2026.
Nepstad, D. C., Stickler, C. M., Soares-Filho, B., and Merry, F. (2008). Interactions among amazon land use, forests and climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 363(1498):1737–1746.
Nepstad, D. e. a. (2014). Slowing amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science, 344(6188):1118–1123.
Paiva, R. e. a. (2020). Análise de metacaracterísticas para classificação de uso e cobertura do solo. In Anais do Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente (WCAMA). SBC.
Roy, B. (1996). Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill.
Silva, J. M., Santos, L. R., and Ferreira, A. C. (2025). A spatial multi-criteria framework to define priorities in wildfire management programs. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 8:104521.
Van Wagner, C. E. (1987). Development and structure of the canadian forest fire weather index system. Technical Report Forestry Technical Report 35, Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Canada.
Winemiller, K. O. e. a. (2016). Balancing hydropower and biodiversity in the amazon, congo, and mekong. Science, 351(6269):128–129.
Xu, H., Chen, J., He, G., Lin, Z., Bai, Y., Ren, M., Zhang, H., Yin, H., and Liu, F. (2024). Immediate assessment of forest fire using a novel vegetation index and machine learning based on multi-platform, high temporal resolution remote sensing images. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 134:104210.
Publicado
19/07/2026
Como Citar
SOUSA, Enéas Monteiro; NEGREIROS, Waldemiro José Assis Gomes; KURIBAYASHI, Hugo Pereira; SILVA, Jeova Rafael Rodrigues Da; DESOUZA, G. N.; SERUFFO, Marcos César da Rocha.
Classification of Fire Risk Scenarios in the State of Pará Using Multicriteria Analysis. In: WORKSHOP DE COMPUTAÇÃO APLICADA À GESTÃO DO MEIO AMBIENTE E RECURSOS NATURAIS (WCAMA), 17. , 2026, Gramado/RS.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2026
.
p. 60-69.
ISSN 2595-6124.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/wcama.2026.23625.
