Modeling music popularity as an epidemic: insights from the Brazilian market

• Gabriel P. Oliveira UFMG
• Luca Vassio Politecnico di Torino
• Ana Paula Couto da Silva UFMG
• Mirella M. Moro UFMG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/brasnam.2025.8760

Resumo

Social networks have drastically changed the music market scenario, enabling songs to reach massive audiences in record time. Given the fast-paced nature of music popularity, this work investigates whether epidemic models can effectively capture how songs gain traction. We apply the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze music virality and success in Brazil. Virality reflects a song’s rapid surge in popularity, whereas success represents its long-term endurance. By comparing the model’s fit for both trajectories, we assess its strengths and limitations in capturing music popularity trends. Our findings reveal that SIR provides a better fit for virality than for long-term success, reinforcing the differences between both processes and, consequently, offering a new perspective on how songs become popular in the digital age.

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