Analysis with SARIMA and FFT Between Two Neighboring Cities Regarding the Implementation of Restrictive Lockdown Measures
Resumo
In this article, we perform the SARIMA model to regress the curve of daily COVID-19 deaths and the impact of implementing restrictive measures like lockdown. For comparison, we adopt two neighboring Brazilian cities with similar characteristics and decompose the original curve of cases to extract the seasonal curve. Using Fast Fourier Transform, we noticed that restriction of human circulation had a direct impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Araraquara by identifying the frequencies that compose the seasonal curves during the disease’s transmission period, which for future work allows analysis and identification of events and actions through the approach.
Palavras-chave:
covid-19, lockdown, sarima, fast fourier transform
Referências
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T. R. Bolaño-Ortiz, Y. Camargo-Caicedo, S. E. Puliafito, M. F. Ruggeri, S. Bolaño-Diaz, R. Pascual-Flores, J. Saturno, S. Ibarra-Espinosa, O. L. Mayol-Bracero, E. Torres-Delgado, and F. Cereceda-Balic, "Spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean region: A look from its economic conditions, climate and air pollution indicators," Environmental Research, vol. 191, dec 2020.
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D. Rousseff, M. Belchior, P. E. Pereira, N. Diretor-Executivo, S. Da, C. Cˆortes, and D. W. Tai, "Sinopse do censo demográfico: 2010," Censo 2010, p. 265, 2011.
"Prefeitura municipal de araraquara - lockdown: Araraquara tem queda no numero de casos e media movel por covid-19," [link], accessed: 2021-07-03.
"Brasil.io - boletins informativos e casos do coronavírus por município por dia," https://brasil.io/dataset/covid19/caso, accessed: 2021-06-30.
E. O. Brigham and R. E. Morrow, "The fast fourier transform," IEEE Spectrum, vol. 4, no. 12, pp. 63-70, 1967.
M. A. Johansson, T. M. Quandelacy, S. Kada, P. V. Prasad, M. Steele, J. T. Brooks, R. B. Slayton, M. Biggerstaff, and J. C. Butler, "Sars-cov-2 transmission from people without covid-19 symptoms," JAMA Network Open, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. e2 035 057-e2 035 057, 01 2021.
B. Long, B. M. Carius, S. Chavez, S. Y. Liang, W. J. Brady, A. Koyfman, and M. Gottlieb, "Clinical update on covid-19 for the emergency clinician: Presentation and evaluation," American Journal of Emergency Medicine, vol. 54, pp. 46-57, 4 2022.
S. A. Lauer, K. H. Grantz, Q. Bi, F. K. Jones, Q. Zheng, H. R. Meredith, A. S. Azman, N. G. Reich, and J. Lessler, "The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application," Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 172, pp. 577-582, 2020.
Q. Song and A. Esogbue, "A new algorithm for automated boxjenkins arma time series modeling using residual autocorrelation/partial autocorrelation functions," IEMS, vol. 5, no. 2, 01 2006.
O. D. Anderson, "The Box-Jenkins approach to time series analysis," RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 3-29, 1977. [Online]. Available: http://www.numdam.org/item/RO_1977_11_1_3_0/
T. Giorgino, "Computing and visualizing dynamic time warping alignments in R: The dtw package," Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 31, no. 7, pp. 1-24, 2009.
S. D. Pitlik, "Covid-19 compared to other pandemic diseases," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.rmmj.org.il
A. Wilder-Smith, "COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel," pp. 1-11, dec 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40794-020-00129-9
"Who - coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic," https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019, accessed: 2021-06-30.
T. R. Bolaño-Ortiz, Y. Camargo-Caicedo, S. E. Puliafito, M. F. Ruggeri, S. Bolaño-Diaz, R. Pascual-Flores, J. Saturno, S. Ibarra-Espinosa, O. L. Mayol-Bracero, E. Torres-Delgado, and F. Cereceda-Balic, "Spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean region: A look from its economic conditions, climate and air pollution indicators," Environmental Research, vol. 191, dec 2020.
J. Verschuur, E. E. Koks, and J. W. Hall, "Global economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdown measures stand out in high-frequency shipping data," PLOS ONE, vol. 16, no. 4, p. e0248818, apr 2021.
A. Mandel and V. Veetil, "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, vol. 4, no. 3, p. 1, oct 2020. [Online]. Available: /pmc/articles/PMC7304379//pmc/articles/PMC7304379/?report= abstract https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7304379/
D. P. Aragão, D. H. dos Santos, A. Mondini, and L. M. G. Gonçalves, "National holidays and social mobility behaviors: Alternatives for forecasting covid-19 deaths in brazil," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 18, no. 21, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/21/11595
N. Ferguson, D. Laydon, G. N. Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, A. Boonyasiri, Z. C. Perez, G. Cuomo-Dannenburg, A. Dighe, I. Dorigatti, H. Fu, K. Gaythorpe, W. Green, A. Hamlet, W. Hinsley, L. Okell, S. V. Elsland, H. Thompson, R. Verity, E. Volz, H. Wang, Y. Wang, P. Walker, C. Walters, P. Winskill, C. Whittaker, C. Donnelly, S. Riley, and A. Ghani, "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) to reduce covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand," Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, pp. 1-20, 2020.
W. M. de Souza, L. F. Buss, D. d. S. Candido, J. P. Carrera, S. Li, A. E. Zarebski, R. H. M. Pereira, C. A. Prete, A. A. de Souza-Santos, K. V. Parag, M. C. T. Belotti, M. F. Vincenti-Gonzalez, J. Messina, F. C. da Silva Sales, P. d. S. Andrade, V. H. Nascimento, F. Ghilardi, L. Abade, B. Gutierrez, M. U. Kraemer, C. K. Braga, R. S. Aguiar, N. Alexander, P. Mayaud, O. J. Brady, I. Marcilio, N. Gouveia, G. Li, A. Tami, S. B. de Oliveira, V. B. G. Porto, F. Ganem, W. A. F. de Almeida, F. F. S. T. Fantinato, E. M. Macário, W. K. de Oliveira, M. L. Nogueira, O. G. Pybus, C. H. Wu, J. Croda, E. C. Sabino, and N. R. Faria, "Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil," Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 4, no. 8, pp. 856-865, aug 2020.
D. Rousseff, M. Belchior, P. E. Pereira, N. Diretor-Executivo, S. Da, C. Cˆortes, and D. W. Tai, "Sinopse do censo demográfico: 2010," Censo 2010, p. 265, 2011.
"Prefeitura municipal de araraquara - lockdown: Araraquara tem queda no numero de casos e media movel por covid-19," [link], accessed: 2021-07-03.
"Brasil.io - boletins informativos e casos do coronavírus por município por dia," https://brasil.io/dataset/covid19/caso, accessed: 2021-06-30.
E. O. Brigham and R. E. Morrow, "The fast fourier transform," IEEE Spectrum, vol. 4, no. 12, pp. 63-70, 1967.
M. A. Johansson, T. M. Quandelacy, S. Kada, P. V. Prasad, M. Steele, J. T. Brooks, R. B. Slayton, M. Biggerstaff, and J. C. Butler, "Sars-cov-2 transmission from people without covid-19 symptoms," JAMA Network Open, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. e2 035 057-e2 035 057, 01 2021.
B. Long, B. M. Carius, S. Chavez, S. Y. Liang, W. J. Brady, A. Koyfman, and M. Gottlieb, "Clinical update on covid-19 for the emergency clinician: Presentation and evaluation," American Journal of Emergency Medicine, vol. 54, pp. 46-57, 4 2022.
S. A. Lauer, K. H. Grantz, Q. Bi, F. K. Jones, Q. Zheng, H. R. Meredith, A. S. Azman, N. G. Reich, and J. Lessler, "The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application," Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 172, pp. 577-582, 2020.
Q. Song and A. Esogbue, "A new algorithm for automated boxjenkins arma time series modeling using residual autocorrelation/partial autocorrelation functions," IEMS, vol. 5, no. 2, 01 2006.
O. D. Anderson, "The Box-Jenkins approach to time series analysis," RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 3-29, 1977. [Online]. Available: http://www.numdam.org/item/RO_1977_11_1_3_0/
T. Giorgino, "Computing and visualizing dynamic time warping alignments in R: The dtw package," Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 31, no. 7, pp. 1-24, 2009.
Publicado
24/10/2022
Como Citar
ARAGÃO, Dunfrey P.; SANTOS, Davi H. dos; MONDINI, Adriano; DISTANTE, Cosimo; GONÇALVES, Luiz M. G..
Analysis with SARIMA and FFT Between Two Neighboring Cities Regarding the Implementation of Restrictive Lockdown Measures. In: WORKSHOP DE ANÁLISE DE PADRÕES E DADOS DA DINÂMICA DE PANDEMIAS - CONFERENCE ON GRAPHICS, PATTERNS AND IMAGES (SIBGRAPI), 35. , 2022, Natal/RN.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2022
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p. 153-158.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sibgrapi.est.2022.23280.
