Forest Fire Simulation via Epidemiological Models in Graphs

• Polyana Graf Finamor Correia UNIRIO
• Jefferson Elbert Simões UNIRIO

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/wcama.2025.9477

Abstract

This paper explores the prediction of trajectory and expansion potential of wildfires in heterogeneous forests. Our proposed methodology consists of modeling the target area as a finite graph following a regular 2D grid topology, each node representing a specific terrain condition, over which wildfires propagate according to a heterogeneous adaptation of the well-known SIR epidemiological model. As a proof of concept, we performed multiple computer simulations for two distinct topologies and initial random locations for wildfires in each configuration. Our results highlight the model’s ability to simulate fire propagation under various conditions, offering potential for theoretical analysis and aiding in the development of fire containment strategies.

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