Characterizing Protection Effects on Network Epidemics driven by Random Walks

• Ronald Souza Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
• Daniel Figueiredo Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9341-6619

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/wperformance.2020.11109

Resumo

Protection effects (PFx) denote protective measures taken by individuals (such as to wear masks and wash hands) upon their risk-perception towards an ongoing epidemic outbreak. The holistic force produced may fundamentally change the course of a spreading, with respect to both its reach and duration. This work proposes a model for PFx on network epidemics where nodes are sites mobile-agents may visit. Risk aversion is encoded as random-walks biased to safe sites. Assuming the network is a complete graph, the model is analyzed and framed as a classical SIS. We find a regime under which PFx preclude endemic steady-states upon arbitrarily large rates for both walk and transmissibility. Simulation results support our theoretical findings.

Palavras-chave: epidemia em redes, efeito de proteção, passeios aleatórios, modelos epidêmicos

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