Dilemas Frente Epidemias Estratégicas: Vacinar ou Reiniciar?
Abstract
Network epidemics are ubiquitous. As botnets evolve, they compromise additional users to join DDoS attack campaigns. Such users face a dilemma with respect to which countermeasures to take: hard (e.g., vaccination), soft (e.g., rebooting and rejuvenation) or no countermeasures at all. To tackle this dilemma, one option is to leverage insights from analytical models. Our key contribution consists of novel results on the steady state solution of epidemic models wherein the attacker is strategic and has a finite attack budget. To this aim, the most probable states of the model are analyzed, and are used to derive closed form expressions that approximate the steady state probability of infection of a node. Then, model’s insights are contrasted against simulations. The simulations qualitatively support the observations of the model and extend the analysis allowing general distributions to the times between the events.
References
Antonakakis, M., April, T., Bailey, M., Bernhard, M., and et al. (2017). Understanding the Mirai Botnet. In Proc. ofUSENIX Security Symposium.
Darboux, M. (1869). Sur la m´ethode d’approximation de Newton. In Nouvelles annales de mathematiques, volume 8, pages 17–27.
Ganesh, A., Massouli´e, L., and Towsley, D. (2005). The effect of network topology on the spread of epidemics. In INFOCOM, volume 2, pages 1455–1466. IEEE.
Keeling, M. J. and Eames, K. T. (2005). Networks and epidemic models. Journal ofthe Royal Society Interface, 2(4):295–307.
Kelly, F. P. (1979). Reversibility and stochastic networks. John Wiley, New York.
Kolias, C., Kambourakis, G., Stavrou, A., and Voas, J. (2017). DDoS in the IoT: Mirai and other Botnets. Computer, 50(7):80–84.
Krebs, B. (2016). Krebsonsecurity hit with record ddos. https://tinyurl.com/ krebs2019.
Marzano, A., Alexander, D., Fonseca, O. L. H. M., Fazzion, E. C., Hoepers, C., Steding- Jessen, K., Chaves, M. H. P. C., Cunha, ´I. S., Guedes, D. O., and Jr., W. M. (2018). The evolution of Bashlite and Mirai IoT botnets. In Computers and Communications.
Peterson, D. (2019). ICS security patching: Never, next, now. https://tinyurl. com/wperf2019b.
Rufino, V., Menasche, D., Cunha, I., Lima, C., and de Aguiar, L. P. (2018). Contaminação epidêmica em redes: Imunidade coletiva e suas implicações frente a atacantes es- tratégicos. In WPerformance, volume 17. SBC.
Tavares, J., Iacobelli, G., and Figueiredo, D. R. (2018). Simulação escalável de epidemias em redes baseadas em passeios aleatórios. In WPerformance, volume 17. SBC.
York, K. (2016). Dyn Statement on 10/21/2016 DDoS Attack. http://dyn.com/blog/dyn-statement-on-10212016-ddos-attack/.
Zhang, J. (2015). Network Process: How Topology Impacts the Dynamics of Epidemics and Cascading Failures. PhD dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University.
Zhang, J. and Moura, J. M. (2018). Who is more at risk in heterogenous networks? In Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), pages 1–5. IEEE.
Zhang, J., Moura, J. M., and Zhang, J. (2017). Contact process with exogenous infection and the scaled sis process. Journal ofComplex Networks.
