A short-term electricity demand forecasting in the Southern Region of Brazil usingthe ARIMA Model and the Holt Exponential Smoothing Model (SEH)

• Mariane Amaral Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
• Anderson Silveira Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
• Viviane Mattos Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
• Eduardo Borges Universidade Federal do Rio Grande

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/eniac.2020.12154

Abstract

Predicting the demand for electricity is an essential task for the nation's economic strategy, and an adequate balance between generation of distribution is extremely necessary. In this context, this work performed the forecast of electricity demand in the Southern Region of Brazil using time series modeling of residential consumption data. The Holt Exponential Smoothing Model and the ARIMA Model were used. The results achieved showed that the models were able to adequately fit the data in short-term, presenting a low validation error, which can be explained by the 2008 global economic crisis.

Keywords: Electricity demand, ARIMA Model, Holt Exponential Smoothing Model.

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