Um Modelo Computacional para o Estudo da Dispersão do Influenza A em uma População
Resumo
O vírus influenza A (H1N1) causa uma doença respiratória transmissível entre pessoas e similar à gripe comum. Os governos têm apresentado planos de intervenção e recomendações à população, entretanto é difícil prever os efeitos dessas ações. Este artigo descreve a construção de um modelo computacional de apoio à decisão considerando diferentes cenários.Referências
Britton, T. (2001). Epidemics in Heterogeneous Communities: Estimation of R0 and Secure Vaccination. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 63(4):705-715.
Cox, N. J. and Subbarao, K. (1999). Influenza. The Lancet, 354(9186):1277-1282.
Deutsch, A. (2003). Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of Interacting Cell Systems with Cellular Automata. Proceedings Second MIT Conference on Compurational Fluid and Solid Mechanics, 1673-1675.
Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. and Metz, J. A. J., (1990). On the Definition and the Computation of the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0 in Models for Infectious Diseases in Heterogeneous Populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4):365-382.
Donaldson, L. J., Rutter, P. D., Ellis, B. M., Greaves, F. E. C., Mytton, O. T., Pebody, R. G. and Yardley, I. E. (2009). Mortality from Pandemic A/H1N1 2009 Influenza in England: Public Health Surveillance Study. British Medical Journal, 339(513):1-8.
Ermentrout, G. B. and Edelstein-Keshet, L. (1993). Cellular Automata Approaches to Biological Modeling. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 160(1):97-133.
Gatherer, D. (2009). The 2009 H1N1 Influenza Outbreak in its Historical Context. Journal of Clinical Virology, 45(3):174-178.
Hill, A. N. and Longini, I. M. (2003). The Critical Vaccination Fraction for Heterogeneous Epidemic Models. Mathematical Biosciences, 181(1):85-106.
Keeling, M. J. and Grenfell, B. T. (2000). Individual-Based Perspectives on R0. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 203(1):51-61.
Kelly, H. A., Grant, K. A., Williams, S., Fielding, J. and Smith, David. (2009).
Epidemiological Characteristics of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 and Seasonal Influenza infection. The Medical Journal of Australia, 191(3):146-149.
Langton, C. G. (1986). Studying Artificial Life with Cellular Automata. Physica D, 2(1):120-149.
Longini, I. M., Halloran, M. E., Nizam, A. and Yang, Y. (2004). Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents. American Journal of Epidemiology, 159(7):623-633.
Rungrotmongkol, T., Intharathep, P., Malaisree, M., Nunthaboot, N., Kaiyawet, N., Sompornpisut, P., Payungporn, S., Poovorawan, Y. and Hannongbua, S. (2009). Susceptibility of Antiviral Drugs Against 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus. Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications, 385(3):390-394.
Cox, N. J. and Subbarao, K. (1999). Influenza. The Lancet, 354(9186):1277-1282.
Deutsch, A. (2003). Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of Interacting Cell Systems with Cellular Automata. Proceedings Second MIT Conference on Compurational Fluid and Solid Mechanics, 1673-1675.
Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. and Metz, J. A. J., (1990). On the Definition and the Computation of the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0 in Models for Infectious Diseases in Heterogeneous Populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4):365-382.
Donaldson, L. J., Rutter, P. D., Ellis, B. M., Greaves, F. E. C., Mytton, O. T., Pebody, R. G. and Yardley, I. E. (2009). Mortality from Pandemic A/H1N1 2009 Influenza in England: Public Health Surveillance Study. British Medical Journal, 339(513):1-8.
Ermentrout, G. B. and Edelstein-Keshet, L. (1993). Cellular Automata Approaches to Biological Modeling. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 160(1):97-133.
Gatherer, D. (2009). The 2009 H1N1 Influenza Outbreak in its Historical Context. Journal of Clinical Virology, 45(3):174-178.
Hill, A. N. and Longini, I. M. (2003). The Critical Vaccination Fraction for Heterogeneous Epidemic Models. Mathematical Biosciences, 181(1):85-106.
Keeling, M. J. and Grenfell, B. T. (2000). Individual-Based Perspectives on R0. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 203(1):51-61.
Kelly, H. A., Grant, K. A., Williams, S., Fielding, J. and Smith, David. (2009).
Epidemiological Characteristics of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 and Seasonal Influenza infection. The Medical Journal of Australia, 191(3):146-149.
Langton, C. G. (1986). Studying Artificial Life with Cellular Automata. Physica D, 2(1):120-149.
Longini, I. M., Halloran, M. E., Nizam, A. and Yang, Y. (2004). Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents. American Journal of Epidemiology, 159(7):623-633.
Rungrotmongkol, T., Intharathep, P., Malaisree, M., Nunthaboot, N., Kaiyawet, N., Sompornpisut, P., Payungporn, S., Poovorawan, Y. and Hannongbua, S. (2009). Susceptibility of Antiviral Drugs Against 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus. Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications, 385(3):390-394.
Publicado
20/07/2010
Como Citar
SAITO, Yuri.
Um Modelo Computacional para o Estudo da Dispersão do Influenza A em uma População. In: SIMPÓSIO BRASILEIRO DE COMPUTAÇÃO APLICADA À SAÚDE (SBCAS), 10. , 2010, Belo Horizonte/MG.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2010
.
p. 1683-1691.
ISSN 2763-8952.
