Uma Abordagem Econômica Baseada em Riscos para Avaliação de uma Carteira de Projetos de Software
Resumo
Engenheiros de software vêm utilizando teorias econômicas para ressaltar aspectos relacionados à geração de valor relativos ao processo de desenvolvimento de software. Com base em conceitos de análise de riscos de crédito, apresentamos uma abordagem para estimar a distribuição de probabilidade de perdas e ganhos que podem ser auferidos por uma organização, de acordo com sua carteira de projetos. Esta abordagem fundamenta-se em uma analogia que compara projetos de software com empréstimos financeiros. Assim, é possível estimar a variabilidade dos lucros esperados em virtude do desenvolvimento de um conjunto de projetos. Um estudo experimental foi realizado para apoiar a abordagem proposta.
Palavras-chave:
Economia Aplicada à Engenharia de Software, Gerenciamento de Risco, Estudos Experimentais em Engenharia de Software
Referências
Sullivan K., Chalasani P., Jha S., Sazawal V. (1999) "Software Design as an Investment Activity: A Real Options Perspective" in Real Options and Business Strategy: Application to Decision Making, L. Trigeorgis, Consulting Editor, Risk Books.
Favaro J.M., Favaro K.R and Favaro P.F. (1998) "Value Based Software Reuse Investment, Annals of Software Engineering 5, pp. 5 - 52.
Boehm B.W., Sullivan K. (2000) "Software Economics: A Roadmap, in The Future of Software Engineering", 22nd International Conference on Software Engineering.
Standish Group (2004) "Chaos Demographics - 2004 Third Quarter Research Report" The Standish Group International Inc.
Barbanson R. et al. (2004) "An Introductin to Credit Risk with a Link to Insurance" AFIR, Working Grioup.
Johnson R., Bhattacharyya G. (1977) "Statistical Concepts and Methods" John Wiley & Sons. New York.
Aragão C. S. L., Carvalho L. E. Z. L., Barros M. O. (2003) "Análise do risco de uma carteira de crédito por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo" Resenha BM&F nº 152.
Carr M. J., Konda S.L, Monarch I., Ulrich F.C., Walker C.F. (1993) Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification" Technical Report CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, EUA, July.
Boehm B.W. (1991) "Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices" IEEE Software, vol. 8, n. 1, January, pp. 32-41.
Barki H., Rivard S., Talbot J. (1995) "Toward an Assessment of Software Development Risk" Journal of Management Information Systems, v. 10, n. 2, p. 203-225.
Jones C. (1994) "Assessment and Control of Software Risks" Yourdon Press Computing Series.New Jersey.
Karolak D.W.(1996) "Software Engineering Risk Management" Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE, Computer Society Press.
Moynihan T.(1997) "How Experienced Project Managers Assess Risk" IEEE Software, v. 14, n. 3, p. 35-41, May/June.
Wallace L. (1999) "The development of an instrument to measure software project risk" PhD Thesis College of Business Administration, Georgia State University, Georgia.
Likert R. (1932) "A technique for the Measurement of Attitudes" Arquives of Psycology.
Farias L.L,, Travassos G.H., Rocha A.R.C. (2003) "Managing Organizational Risk Knowledge" Journal of Universal Computer Science, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp. 670-681.
Miranda E. (1999) "Establishing Software Size Using the Paired Comparisons Method" Ericsson Research, Canada.
Bana e Costa C.A., Vansnick J.C. (1995) "A theoretical Framework for Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH)" In: Clímaco, J., Multicriteria Analysis. Berlin: Springer.
Costa H.R., Barros M.O., Travassos G.H.(2004) "Software Project Risk Evaluation Based on Specific and Systemic Risks" in: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering.
Favaro J.M., Favaro K.R and Favaro P.F. (1998) "Value Based Software Reuse Investment, Annals of Software Engineering 5, pp. 5 - 52.
Boehm B.W., Sullivan K. (2000) "Software Economics: A Roadmap, in The Future of Software Engineering", 22nd International Conference on Software Engineering.
Standish Group (2004) "Chaos Demographics - 2004 Third Quarter Research Report" The Standish Group International Inc.
Barbanson R. et al. (2004) "An Introductin to Credit Risk with a Link to Insurance" AFIR, Working Grioup.
Johnson R., Bhattacharyya G. (1977) "Statistical Concepts and Methods" John Wiley & Sons. New York.
Aragão C. S. L., Carvalho L. E. Z. L., Barros M. O. (2003) "Análise do risco de uma carteira de crédito por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo" Resenha BM&F nº 152.
Carr M. J., Konda S.L, Monarch I., Ulrich F.C., Walker C.F. (1993) Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification" Technical Report CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, EUA, July.
Boehm B.W. (1991) "Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices" IEEE Software, vol. 8, n. 1, January, pp. 32-41.
Barki H., Rivard S., Talbot J. (1995) "Toward an Assessment of Software Development Risk" Journal of Management Information Systems, v. 10, n. 2, p. 203-225.
Jones C. (1994) "Assessment and Control of Software Risks" Yourdon Press Computing Series.New Jersey.
Karolak D.W.(1996) "Software Engineering Risk Management" Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE, Computer Society Press.
Moynihan T.(1997) "How Experienced Project Managers Assess Risk" IEEE Software, v. 14, n. 3, p. 35-41, May/June.
Wallace L. (1999) "The development of an instrument to measure software project risk" PhD Thesis College of Business Administration, Georgia State University, Georgia.
Likert R. (1932) "A technique for the Measurement of Attitudes" Arquives of Psycology.
Farias L.L,, Travassos G.H., Rocha A.R.C. (2003) "Managing Organizational Risk Knowledge" Journal of Universal Computer Science, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp. 670-681.
Miranda E. (1999) "Establishing Software Size Using the Paired Comparisons Method" Ericsson Research, Canada.
Bana e Costa C.A., Vansnick J.C. (1995) "A theoretical Framework for Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH)" In: Clímaco, J., Multicriteria Analysis. Berlin: Springer.
Costa H.R., Barros M.O., Travassos G.H.(2004) "Software Project Risk Evaluation Based on Specific and Systemic Risks" in: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering.
Publicado
03/10/2005
Como Citar
COSTA, Hélio R.; BARROS, Marcio de O.; TRAVASSOS, Guilherme H..
Uma Abordagem Econômica Baseada em Riscos para Avaliação de uma Carteira de Projetos de Software. In: SIMPÓSIO BRASILEIRO DE ENGENHARIA DE SOFTWARE (SBES), 19. , 2005, Uberlândia/MG.
Anais [...].
Porto Alegre: Sociedade Brasileira de Computação,
2005
.
p. 311-326.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbes.2005.23827.
