Survival Analysis: a case study in an Information Systems Course

• Joubert Alexandrino de Souza IFES
• Karin Satie Komati IFES
• Jefferson Oliveira Andrade IFES

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/wei.2022.223357

Abstract

Dropping out of higher education is a serious problem that has been investigated for decades and causes great harm to individuals, educational institutions, and society as a whole. This article presents a case study on the application of the survival analysis technique combined with the construction of predictive models in the identification of the determinant elements of dropout in an undergraduate course in Information Systems at a public institution of higher education in Brazil. Methods of educational data mining and probabilistic modeling were applied to student data to model students' expected completion of the course, semester by semester. The results of the survival analysis indicate the greatest risk of dropout is in the initial semesters of the course, while the identification of the determining characteristics of dropout makes it clear that the subjects of the first two semesters retain about 50% of the student population.

Keywords: Higher education dropout, Educational Data Mining

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