Measuring the size of the surprise box in football leagues

• Raquel Y. S. Aoki Federal University of Minas Gerais
• Renato M. Assunção Federal University of Minas Gerais
• Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo Federal University of Minas Gerais

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbbd.2016.24330

Abstract

Victory in soccer is a mixture of skill and luck. But how much of a victory is due to skill and luck? To answer this question, in this paper, we analyze soccer leagues that follow the double round-robin tournament system. We developed a scale with base in three reference points where we located a measure, also made in this paper, of observed variability in a championship. In total, we analyzed ten years of data from six championships. This analysis quantifies the notion that football is a box of surprises and allows one to measure to what extent a championship is more surprising than others.

Keywords: Soccer data analysis

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