Relationships Between Climate, Vectors, and Dengue in Espírito Santo: A Regression, Correlation, and Epidemiological Modeling Approach

• Bernardo R. A. Silva UFMG
• Gabriel P. Oliveira UFMG
• Mirella M. Moro UFMG
• Michele A. Brandão UFMG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/sbcas.2026.20311

Abstract

Dengue fever generates highly negative social and economic impacts in Brazil and worldwide. Fighting the disease means controlling its main vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, and understanding its population dynamics. In this work, we perform several analyses to verify the relationship between meteorological variables, mosquito population, and the incidence of dengue in different municipalities of the state of Espírito Santo. We also apply three different epidemiological models to better understand the cases of this disease in Espírito Santo. The results mainly reveal a greater influence of temperature on the abundance of the dengue vector and on the quality of the epidemiological models.

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