Entre Expectativas e Experiências: Análise de Narrativas em Bets Regulamentadas no Brasil

• Karen Gomes UFMG
• Samuel Guimarães UFMG
• Nicolas Reis UFV
• João F. H. Olivetti UFV
• Julio C. S. Reis UFV
• Marcos André Gonçalves UFMG
• Fabrício Benevenuto UFMG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5753/webmedia.2026.30836

Resumo

Digital advertising plays a central role in shaping consumers’ expectations in online gambling markets, yet little is known about how these expectations align with users’ subsequent experiences. This paper investigates this relationship in Brazil’s newly regulated fixed-odds betting market by integrating advertisements from the Meta Ad Library, reputation indicators from Reclame Aqui, and consumer complaints from Consumidor.gov.br. We propose a pipeline that combines multimodal advertisement classification using Large Language Models (LLMs), topic modeling with BERTopic, and semantic comparison based on Sentence-BERT and Natural Language Inference (NLI). Our analysis includes 9,460 advertisements from licensed operators, 421,814 reported issues from Reclame Aqui, and 16,662 consumer complaints. The results show that advertisements emphasize bonuses, financial incentives, and responsible gambling messages, whereas complaints focus on misleading advertising, account restrictions, operational failures, and failures in consumer protection mechanisms such as self-exclusion. Although both sources frequently address similar topics, semantic analysis reveals systematic contradictions between promotional narratives and consumers’ reported experiences. These findings provide evidence to support consumer protection policies and the monitoring of advertising practices in regulated online gambling markets.

Palavras-chave: Online Gambling, Consumer Complaints, Topic Modeling

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